The Most Accurate
Earnings Models
in Shipping
Bottom-up fleet modeling and valuation frameworks used to analyze shipping and offshore equities.
EPS Forecast Accuracy
Nortilus vs cons — Q4 2025
| Ticker | Consensus | Nortilus | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
NMM Q4 2025 | $4.74 | $3.45 | $3.40 96% closer |
DAC Q4 2025 | $6.46 | $6.96 | $7.14 74% closer |
TNK Q4 2025 | $2.45 | $2.84 | $2.80 89% closer |
SHIP Q4 2025 | $0.47 | $0.54 | $0.68 33% closer |
ECO Q4 2025 | $1.95 | $1.65 | $1.78 24% closer |
Recent earnings where our models beat consensus
Built from the
Ground Up
Shipping equities often move on earnings surprises, yet consensus estimates rely on aggregated, simplified assumptions.
Our models build earnings from the ground up — combining vessel-level fleet valuations, active charter contracts and TC exposure, current spot rates, and operating cost structures drawn from public filings. This produces forecasts that frequently diverge from consensus and generate statistically significant trading signals.
63% of our EPS estimates beat consensus
Across 334 completed earnings events in our database
Fleet & Asset Values
Vessel count, capacity, and asset valuations by company — linked to current market values and updated each quarter.
Charter Contracts & TC Rates
Active time-charter coverage, contract durations, and TC rate inputs — the primary driver of revenue accuracy.
Rate Exposure
Spot vs. contract mix, routing, and freight rate sensitivity tied to live market data.
Cost Structures
Opex, G&A, interest expense, and fleet-level overhead — modeled from public filings and management guidance.
Estimate vs actual (500 most recent events)
Shipping & Offshore.
From dry bulk carriers and crude tankers to deepwater subsea vessels and offshore drilling rigs — Nortilus covers the full spectrum of maritime and offshore equities.
The Data Stack
Access the proprietary data and market intelligence that powers our models — and make it part of your own research process.
EPS Consensus Tracking
Follow how Street estimates evolve week by week across all covered companies. See divergence between Nortilus and consensus as it builds ahead of each earnings event.
Shipping Rate Data
TC rates, spot rates, and period charter trends across tanker, dry bulk, container, LPG, and offshore sectors. Historical rate series to support cycle analysis.
Vessel Asset Values
Up-to-date vessel valuations by type, size, and age — essential for NAV modeling and tracking how fleet values evolve through the shipping cycle.
Commodity & Macro Data
Macro and commodity context used to support shipping and offshore valuation and cycle analysis.
Research & Reports
Deep-dive company notes, earnings previews, and cycle analysis. Weekly commentary on market movements from the Nortilus team.
Broker Data
Rate fixtures and independent asset valuations from a leading industry broker, integrated directly into the platform.
Algo Model
Our earnings forecasts are used to generate quantitative trading signals around earnings announcements. The model goes LONG when Nortilus EPS exceeds consensus, SHORT when below, and exits at T+2.
Total Return
+574%
+85.8% CAGR
Win Rate
65.6%
+1.9% avg/trade
Sharpe
2.34
Sortino 1.29
Trades
227
since Feb 2023
Historical Return — since Feb 2023
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Long-Term Portfolio
Live since January 2026 · Equal weight · Long-only
An equal-weight conviction portfolio of shipping and offshore names. Positions are selected on fundamentals. Rebalanced as conviction changes.
Total Return
+9.0%
since Jan 2026
Sharpe
0.71
Sortino 0.67
Active Positions
10
equal weight
Historical Return — since January 2026
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Navigate Cyclical Markets
with Better Data
Proprietary earnings models, live trading signals, and a conviction portfolio — built for serious shipping and offshore investors.